International Court of Justice Opines Tomorrow

The ICJ will give its opinion on the legality of Kosovo's declaration of independence, which occurred on February 17, 2008. There are many articles on what the ICJ's statement will mean and who will win. But the consensus is that the statement will be vague and that both Kosovo and Serbia will interpret it in their own favors. Most likely the ICJ will not rule in favor or against Kosovo's independence, and this article by Stratfor actually believes that Russia will be the big winner tomorrow.

Already Kosovo and Serbia have begun to predict what the ICJ opinion will say and what it will mean, and both governments are trading blows in the news. This isn't new nor is it worthwhile rhetoric, but both Kosovo and Serbia know that after tomorrow they both will meet in the coming months for talks about how to solve their differences. Serbia references these future talks to be about Kosovo's status, but Kosovo rejects any talks on its status; and both more or less deny the rumors of land swaps because the time to have done this is about 20-30 years too late. The land swap would potentiall be Kosovo's "North" region, which is predominately Serbian, with the Presevo Valley in Southern Serbia, which has a large Albanian contingent. And actually nothing will really happen for the next few days because the EU has decided not to make any statements until July 26th on the ICJ ruling. I've heard that until the EU speaks, then Serbia will not say much, but Kosovo will have no problem issuing statements, especially from Prime Minister Hashim Thaci, who happens to be in the United States this week (coincidence? I think not).

The ICJ ruling also has consequences for other territories in the Balkans, such as Republic of Srpska in Bosnia, territory in Croatia, Montenegro, and Macedonia. And on a larger scale, there are disputed and wanna-be break away regions in Spain and Greece (which is in the Balkans) to name 2 more prominent cases. We will see what happens tomorrow and the days to follow. I will try to report what I can, although this should be in the news. There are rumors that protests and the like may break out in the North, and I will be in Mitrovica so I will relay what happens. But these are only rumors, and most people expect nothing serious to happen throughout the rest of the country, except for celebrating an ambiguous statement.